Pavin Smith: The Late Bloomer?

Pavin Smith figures to play a key role with the Arizona Diamondbacks in a platoon role this 2025 MLB season at the DH spot after seeming to put it all together last year between two extended stretches in the bigs. Smith was left off last year’s Opening Day roster but earned a spot back by mid-April, making an immediate impact with a 124 wRC+ in 61 plate appearances through early June, half of which came in right field and the rest split between DH and pinch-hitter duties. He was sent back down in early June but returned to the big leagues in mid-August. He finished the season in the majors on a high note, posting the second-highest wRC+ in September among qualified hitters, behind only Shohei Ohtani. In total, he slashed .270/.348/.547 for a 142 wRC+ in 142 plate appearances. The small sample size gives the impression that the overall success was fluky, but the surface-level stats are backed by impressive underlying metrics across the board.

Smith’s well-rounded skill set was reflected in his bright red Savant Sliders. With a solid foundation built on his plate discipline and ability to draw walks to bolster his on-base percentage, the lefty bat has long been a patient hitter with above-average contact rates too. The two tools produced an uninspired 98 wRC+ throughout the 2023 season in 1000-plus plate appearances. His walk rate at 10.1% and strikeout rate at 20.7% were both solid, but the power numbers lagged behind – his isolated power (ISO) sat in the .140 ISO range every season (.156 is the MLB average). 

Last year, his ISO doubled to a top-tier .277 mark last year, but the small sample size questions if he’ll repeat those power numbers this season as he gets regular AB’s versus righties. However, his barrel rate nearly doubled, going from league average to 14%, putting him in the top tenth of the league if he qualified. He also reached a new max EV of 112.1 mph, placing him in the top fifth of the league. 

He’s proven he can mash, but the projections aren’t buying into his newfound power surge. The five projection systems on Fangraphs – Steamer, ZIPS, ATC, The Bat X and OOPSY – all peg his ISO to settle back to league average, with the most optimistic (ATC) at a slightly above-average .172 mark. The uptick in the power metrics points toward him surpassing his modest power projections though matching his elite ‘24 benchmark is unsustainable.

While Smith’s slugfest last season was impressive, it’s worth noting that his success was somewhat pitch-dependent. He absolutely feasted on fastballs, posting an elite .593 xwOBA on contact, a mark that places him in the conversation with some of the game’s best. However, when it came to breaking balls and offspeed pitches, his performance was decidedly more pedestrian. Against breaking stuff, his xwOBA of .427 was solid but still well within league-average territory (.356). His struggles with offspeed offerings were evident, as he posted a below-average .330 xwOBA, compared to the .343 league norm. 

This split highlights a potential weakness in his game, as pitchers might try to take advantage of his struggles with non-fastball pitches. While his fastball performance is promising, it’s uncertain whether he can keep it up against a wider range of pitch types, especially as pitchers start using more offspeed and breaking pitches to challenge him.

There remains skepticism about whether a 29-year-old can truly evolve at this stage of his career. Typically players who make significant strides in their development do so much earlier, and while Smith has flashed potential in the past, it’s fair to question if the improvements he showed last season are sustainable or just a late-career anomaly. 

It’s worth considering that Smith was once a first-round draft pick, selected by the club seventh overall in the 2017 MLB Draft out of University of Virginia. It’s possible that his development simply took longer than expected, and the player who was once highly regarded as a prospect could still be in line for some sort of breakout, just later than most.

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