The Four Year Peak Club and Ohtani’s Historic Pace
The baseball world is running out of unique ways to describe Shohei Ohtani, but he continues to give fans new feats to marvel at. His remarkable first season with the Dodgers featured another new trick by Ohtani: an MVP-level performance as solely a hitter. Ohtani’s two-way abilities are what vaulted him into his own stratosphere a few season ago, but since then, Ohtani has been able to put together season after season of all-time great production. After four straight seasons of MVP-caliber production, Ohtani has once again entered a new conversation with elite company. There is a unique group of players in MLB history who were able to put up four consecutive season of truly elite production, and Ohtani now finds himself on this list amongst inner-circle Hall of Famers and legends of the sport.
Ohtani’s Four Year Peak
When framing players’ peaks through this four season context, we can see which players in history were able to maintain their incredibly high peaks for an extended period. This differs from players who were models of consistency throughout their careers but were unable to put up their absolute historic best in four consecutive seasons. A good basis for examining this group of players is through the WAR they accrued. In Ohtani’s case, he was able to put up 10, 8.3, 9.7, and 9.2 Baseball Reference WAR (rWAR) in each season from 2021 through 2024. These numbers helped earn Ohtani three MVPs in those four seasons along with a second-place finish. This combined 37.2 rWAR in four seasons is a special benchmark, but it is not uncharted territory across baseball history. It’s time to compare Ohtani’s production over the last four seasons to the apexes of some of the best players ever.
The Great Four Year Peaks in History
Perhaps the best example of an elite four year statistical peak in baseball history belongs to Barry Bonds, and he actually did it twice. Amid a suspected steroid-fueled surge in production from 2001-2004, Bonds put up 11.9, 11.8, 9.2, and 10.6 rWAR in four straight seasons, totaling 43.5 rWAR. This production can be attributed entirely to the best stretch of offensive output in MLB history, and it also resulted in four consecutive MVP awards. A decade earlier, Bonds also earned three MVPs in four years plus one runner up finish from 1990-1993. He led the NL in rWAR in all four of these seasons, finishing at 9.7, 8, 9, and 9.9, respectively, totaling 36.6. These numbers are not quite on the level of what he would accomplish from ’01-’04, but he came about this production as a well-rounded five tool player. The rWAR numbers from this ’90-’93 mirror to an extent what Ohtani is doing right now.
There are also a handful of pitchers who have posted their best seasons in a four year stretch. Greg Maddux won four straight Cy Young awards from 1992-1995 and put up 9.1, 5.8, 8.5, and 9.7 rWAR in those seasons. This stretch features the three best seasons by rWAR of his career, and the outlier lower rWAR season still featured an MLB-leading 2.36 ERA on an MLB-leading 267 innings pitched but his team conceded a lot of unearned runs in these starts that deflated his rWAR.
Like Maddux, Randy Johnson also won four Cy Young awards in four straight seasons. This stretch occurred from 1999 to 2002 where he earned 9.1, 8.1, 10.1, and 10.7 rWAR, respectively. Despite other amazing seasons and another Cy Young award 6 seasons earlier, this ’99-’02 stretch is the clear apex of Johnson’s legendary career.
In the same vein, Sandy Koufax won three Cy Youngs in four seasons from 1963-1966, leading the National League in ERA in all four seasons. The 10.7, 7.3, 8.1, and 10.3 rWAR totals he posted in these four consecutive years were the best of his career by far. As a bonus, Koufax’s Dodgers won the World Series in two of those seasons and he was named World Series MVP both times.
Clayton Kershaw has a four year stretch of his own where he led MLB in ERA for four straight years, winning the Cy Young three times and finishing runner up in the other season. From 2011-2014, he produced 6.8, 6.4, 8.1, and 7.1 rWAR, and he also put up 7.3 rWAR in the season after this stretch but dropped down to third place in the Cy Young race in 2015.
Another pitcher worthy of mention is Pedro Martinez. Martinez won three Cy Youngs in four years from 1997-2000, with a runner up finish in the year he did not win. He accrued 9.0, 7.3, 9.8, and 11.7 rWAR in these seasons, his third, fifth, second, and first best totals of his career, respectively. Martinez had the best ERA in MLB in each of his Cy Young winning seasons, which was capped off by his 1.74 ERA in 2000 at the height of the steroid era.
Joe Morgan and Wade Boggs are two underrated hitters who actually put up five year stretches that served as the clear apexes of their careers. Morgan put up 9.3, 9.3, 8.6, 11, and 9.6 rWAR in his first five seasons on the Reds from 1972-1976, earning two MVPs in that stretch. Boggs led all of MLB in on-base percentage from 1985 through 1989, which helped him earn 9.1, 8.1, 8.3, 8.3, and 8.4 rWAR in those respective seasons.
Carl Yastrzemski led MLB in rWAR three times in four years from 1967 to 1970, posting 12.5, 10.5, 5.5, and 9.5 rWAR during his apex. The low outlier of 5.5 rWAR in 1969 clearly brings down his total production over this span, but it’s worth noting that the 12.5 rWAR in 1967 is the highest number mentioned thus far. This elite season is a testament to Yaz’s incredibly high ceiling and five tool play, even in comparison to the other legends of the game.
The Best Examples of Elite Longevity
These historic four year peaks show off some of the best primes in the history of MLB, but this is not the only way to identify historically great performers, of course. Albert Pujols is a great example of a player who did not have an easily identifiable four year peak; instead, he was able to put up MVP or near MVP-caliber seasons for ten years in a row. Pujols finished top four in MVP voting in nine out of the first ten season of his career, winning the award three times, but not in the same four year stretch. From 2003-2009, Pujols finished his season with between 8.4 and 9.7 rWAR in seven straight years. This consistent excellence was the trademark of the first half of Pujols’ career.
Mike Trout is another player who is better described by this model of excellence. Trout’s first eight full MLB seasons featured three MVP awards, four runner-up finishes, and one fourth place finish in an injury-shortened 2017 campaign. His ninth season was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season where he still finished fifth in MVP, and each of his seasons since has been interrupted by injury. Trout is one of the prime examples of WAR illustrating someone’s consistent greatness. His first eight season in chronological order were worth 10.5, 8.9, 7.7, 9.6, 10.5, 6.9, 9.9, and 7.9 rWAR, respectively. This is without question of the best runs of sustained excellence in MLB history, but again, no clear four year apex.
This archetype of consistent excellence with no discernible four year peak describes several players throughout history. Mike Schmidt has the most career rWAR of any third baseman, along with three MVPs and four times leading the NL in rWAR, but his production was distributed throughout his long career. Lou Gehrig won two MVP awards a decade apart, never finished below 7.2 rWAR in any season during that ten year stretch, and even eclipsed 9.5 rWAR five times in those ten seasons. Stan Musial won three MVPs in a six year stretch, which was interrupted by a season missed for military service, and was able to finish as MVP runner-up four other times scattered throughout his career. The undisputed most productive second basemen in MLB history was Rogers Hornsby, who led the NL in rWAR eleven times in thirteen seasons, eclipsing 10 rWAR six times. Mickey Mantle led the AL in rWAR six times in a seven year span and in offensive rWAR nine times in a ten season span, but his clear third most productive season came five years after his two best seasons. Hank Aaron was top 5 in the NL in rWAR eight times and top 10 thirteen times. Ty Cobb had fifteen seasons where he finished top 10 in rWAR. The immortal Babe Ruth led the AL in rWAR eleven times in a thirteen year span, and he surpassed 10 rWAR nine times in his career but never did so in four straight seasons.
Players Who Did Both
It should be clear by now that having an elite four year apex is not the end all be all of what should define someone’s greatness, since so many inner-circle Hall of Famers cannot be cast into that mold. Despite this reality, there are three legendary players worth highlighting that clearly had an historic four year apex while also being models of incredible consistency season after season for a decade or longer.
Ted Williams led MLB in rWAR in four straight seasons, posting 10.4, 10.5, 10.6, and 9.5 rWAR in 1941-1942;1946-1947, a remarkable streak joined by three years of military service. In addition to this. Williams was able to produce 9.7 rWAR as a 38 year-old in 1957, a full decade after his four year apex. He led the AL in OPS ten times and holds the MLB record for best on-base percentage in a career.
Barry Bonds was already highlighted for his exemplary apex from 2001-2004, as well as his other apex from 1990-1993. If simply having two distinct four year stretches of all-time great production was not enough to illustrate his sustained greatness, Bonds also led the NL in rWAR three different times between his two apexes.
Walter Johnson is the best pitcher in MLB history according to rWAR. His four best seasons were consecutive, posting whopping rWAR totals of 14.3, 15.2, 11.8, and 11.6 from 1912-1915, respectively. Outside of this unbelievable peak, Johnson eclipsed 10 rWAR in a season four more times. He still holds the MLB record for most career shutouts, and he retired with a 2.17 ERA in 5914.1 innings pitched. Dead-ball era or not, it cannot be understated how dominant he was compared to his peers at incredibly high volume.
No conversation on baseball immortality can conclude without mentioning Willie Mays. Mays is the all-time leader in career rWAR amongst position players. He led the NL in rWAR ten times in a thirteen year stretch where he never posted below a 7.6 rWAR. He finished top 5 in rWAR in each of those thirteen seasons. And, because it’s Willie Mays, of course he was able to put together his four best seasons in immediate succession, right in the middle of his career. From 1962-1965, Mays put up 10.5, 10.6, 11, and 11.2 rWAR, respectively.
I know that was a lot of names and a lot of numbers. Thank you for bearing with me. This was not meant to serve as a summary of every great player ever, as there are many that I did not mention. Nor was this supposed to be a perfect measurement on greatness, as I primarily used just one statistic to put these players into their categories. What I do hope you leave with is this: Shohei Ohtani has just had one of the all-time great four year apexes in MLB history, a feat of production that few have been able to replicate. But now, Ohtani has the opportunity to do something even more special. Simply continuing his current trajectory would result in a career on par with the greatest to ever play the game. His talent and his abilities are without question and without parallel, but he can reach the top echelon of legendary status with continued top-end production for years to come. Can Ohtani become more than his four year peak? If so, he will be standing shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Williams, Bonds, Johnson, and Mays when all is said and done.
