The whole is not always greater than the sum of its parts
Over 2,000 years ago, Aristotle said something along the lines of “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”. Unsurprisingly, I dwell on a team and its players when I come across the saying.
In December, I completed my undergraduate studies at the University of Michigan, majoring in economics and minoring in statistics. Since I have been out of school, I have been watching a lot of college basketball. I enjoy analyzing sports and their data, so I find betting on player and game outcomes fun.
On Thursday, I bet on Rutgers to cover a +5 point spread. Just before tip-off, I noticed that the line jumped up to 8.5. After that, I checked Twitter and read that Dylan Harper, who leads the Scarlet Knights in points and assists (per game), would be out. That justified the movement alright. The fact that the spread moved 3.5 points in Indiana’s direction suggests that Rutgers is 3.5 points better with Dylan Harper than they are without him, which is interesting. It is important to note that the number should account for who takes on Harper’s minutes. Imagine if Rutgers could allocate 200 minutes evenly to 10 Dylan Harpers and had 11 on the roster. One Dylan Harper being out would be inconsequential, even though he is a very good player. That is because the eleventh Dylan Harper is the same player as the hurt Harper.
In reality, Ace Bailey, Jamichael Davis, Jeremiah Williams, Lathan Sommerville, and Tyson Acuff played more than they usually do. Incredibly, Ace Bailey finished the game with 29 field goal attempts, scoring 39 points. His effort was not great enough, as Rutgers lost by 10 points. I lost too. I did not watch the game but I followed it on my phone, and I recognized that Malik Reneau, one of Indiana’s leading scorers, got hurt inside the first minute. Nonetheless, Indiana had won (and covered).
Yesterday, Malik Reneau was unavailable against Penn State. Indiana closed as 7.5 point underdogs but won by six! For what it is worth, that was the best performance I had seen from the Hoosiers. Obviously, this is not strong evidence in favor of the fact that Indiana is better off without Malik Reneau, but the clue points towards that conclusion. That is not to say that Malik Reneau is not a good player. He scores frequently and efficiently — inside the paint — and he rebounds. He does foul too often though.
Postgame Sunday, John Fanta, a college basketball broadcaster and reporter for Fox, posted this tweet.
One of the first things a student learns in economics is that a rational business wants to maximize its profits. Likewise, a team typically wants to maximize the number of games it wins. If Indiana was doing that prior to Reneau’s injury, then losing him would hurt its chances of winning, as he is a player that coach Mike Woodson would want around 30 minutes a night from.
Without Malik Reneau, Indiana played with only one big: Oumar Ballo. Both Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau score almost all of their points close to the basket and at the free throw line. When they are both on the court at the same time, which happens regularly, Indiana’s players are tighter together. When Reneau and Ballo are each standing near the basket, at least two defenders occupy that space, leaving less room for both bigs to operate and making it harder for Indiana’s other players to score near the basket.
This is not the case when one of Reneau or Ballo is not playing! Perhaps it is not so crazy that Indiana has played better in the absence of arguably its top scorer. When Reneau returns, maybe Indiana should not play the two together. They could alternate them, similar to how Purdue switched between Zach Edey and Trevion Williams in 2021-22. The following season, UConn won the national championship. They had two ultra-productive centers, Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, yet they did not play together.
The optimal (winning) strategy for a basketball team is not necessarily to have its five best players on the court the most. The goal is to get the most out of the team. For Indiana, that might entail Reneau and Ballo — Indiana’s two best players — splitting minutes. If they continue to play them simultaneously, the whole might be less than the sum of its parts.
Featured image from https://maryfrancesflood.com/2016/02/06/the-whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts/
