Tuesday, March 5, 2024
AnalysisLos Angeles DodgersMLBNational LeagueNL West

How much should it cost to extend Mookie Betts?

This morning, Lou Merloni, a NBC Sports Boston Baseball Analyst, reported that Mookie Betts will (likely) sign a 10+ year contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers that will cost between $350-400 million.

In this article, I will explore what one would expect Mookie Betts to get paid based on the deal that Mike Trout signed last March.

Trout was originally going to make $33.25 million in 2019 and 2020. His new contract bumped his yearly salary up to $36 million for both of those seasons. Additionally, Trout will be owed $35.45 million annually from 2021 to 2030. When one multiplies 35.45 by 10 and adds that product to (36-33.25)*2, one arrives at a net total of $360 million. At this point, I will convert that money into 2019 dollars assuming 5% yearly inflation for five years.

2019: $3.5 million ($3.5 million)

2020: $3.3 million ($3.5 million)

2021: $32.15 million ($35.45 million)

2022: $30.62 million ($35.45 million)

2023: $29.16 million ($35.45 million)

2024: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2025: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2026: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2027: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2028: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2029: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

2030: $27.78 million ($35.45 million)

Total: $293.16 million ($360 million)

Now that we’ve calculated the total 2019 dollar value of Trout’s deal, we will look at how many wins above replacement one would expect him to be worth from 2021 to 2030 (Trout was due to become a free agent after the 2020 season prior to signing an extension with the Angels).

Trout’s fWAR from 2015 to 2018

2016: 9.7

2017: 6.8

2018: 9.8

Weighting his fWAR 3-2-1 (by recency) results in a weighted fWAR of 8.8.

Here are Trout’s projected fWAR totals (subtracting 0.5 fWAR post- age-30 season) from 2021 to 2030…

2021 (age-29): 8.8

2022: 8.8

2023 (age-31): 8.3

2024: 7.8

2025 (age-33): 7.3

2026: 6.8

2027 (age-35): 6.3

2028: 5.8

2029 (age-37 season): 5.3

2030: 4.8

Total: 70.0

In 2019 dollars, the Angels are paying Trout $4.188 million per 1 fWAR he is expected to accumulate from 2021 to 2030.

……….

Betts’ fWAR from 2017 to 2019

2017: 5.3

2018: 10.4

2019: 6.6

Weighted fWAR: 7.7

Let’s assume Betts’ deal begins in 2021. Here are Betts’ projected fWAR totals from 2021 onwards…

2021 (age-28 season): 7.7

2022: 7.7

2023 (age-30 season): 7.7

2024: 7.2

2025 (age-32 season): 6.7

2026: 6.2

2027 (age-34 season): 5.7

2028: 5.2

2029 (age-36 season): 4.7

2030: 4.2

2031 (age-38 season): 3.7

2032: 3.2

Here are projections for the amount of money Betts would be worth in each of those seasons using 4.188 as are $/fWAR number and applying inflation…

2021: $35.57 million (7.7 * (4.188*1.05*1.05))

2022: $37.35 million (7.7 * (4.188*1.05*1.05*1.05))

2023: $39.19 million (7.7 * (4.188*1.05*1.05*1.05*1.05))

2024: $38.52 million (7.2 * (4.188*1.05*1.05*1.05*1.05*1.05)

2025: $35.85 million

2026: $33.17 million

2027: $30.50 million

2028: $27.82 million

2029: $25.15 million

2030: $22.47 million

2031: $19.80 million

2032: $17.12 million

Mookie Betts contract possibilites

  • 1 year, $35.57 million
  • 2 years, $72.92 million
  • 3 years, $112.11 million
  • 4 years, $150.63 million
  • 5 years, $186.48 million
  • 6 years, $219.65 million
  • 7 years, $250.15 million
  • 8 years, $277.97 million
  • 9 years, $303.12 million
  • 10 years, $325.59 million
  • 11 years, $345.39 million
  • 12 years, $362.51 million

My prediction: 12 years, $360 million ($30 million per year)