Introducing a new and improved pwOBA+ (Pitchers)
In the last week, I’ve introduced three new and improved pitching metrics: pwOBAcon+, pBB%+, and pK%+. All three of these stats feed into predictive weighted on-base average plus (pwOBA+).
One other component that goes into pwOBA+ is regressed hit-by-pitch percent.
pwOBA = (pBB%*wBB)+(HBP% regressed*wHBP)+((1-HBP% regressed-pBB%-pK%)*pwOBAcon)
pwOBA+ = pwOBA/league average non-bunt wOBA*100
Here are the lowest single-season predictive weighted on-base average plus marks since 2015
- Dellin Betances 2016 (79.9)
- Clayton Kershaw 2015 (80.4)
- Gerrit Cole 2019 (80.9)
- Andrew Miller 2016 (81.5)
- Craig Kimbrel 2017 (81.8)
- Josh Hader 2019 (82.4)
- Clayton Kershaw 2016 (83.3)
- Chris Sale 2018 (83.3)
- Dellin Betances 2015 (83.7)
- Dellin Betances 2017 (83.7)
Highest
- Chris Tillman 2017 (112.6)
- Ariel Jurado 2018 (112.2)
- Bryan Mitchell 2018 (112.0)
- Kyle Kendrick 2015 (111.5)
- Chris Tillman 2018 (111.5)
- Andrew Cashner 2018 (111.2)
- Dan Straily 2019 (111.1)
- Brian Flynn 2018 (110.8)
- Bartolo Colon 2018 (110.7)
- Jacob Nix 2018 (110.5)
In looking at how predictive 2018 pwOBA was of 2019 non-bunt wOBA compared to 2018 non-bunt wOBA and 2018 non-bunt xwOBA, one can clearly see that pwOBA is far more predictive of future non-bunt wOBA than non-bunt xwOBA and non-bunt wOBA are. It is also the most stable of the three metrics.
![](https://i0.wp.com/maxsportingstudio.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Screen-Shot-2021-04-25-at-6.45.46-PM.png?resize=800%2C390)
The same conclusions can be said about pERA (pwOBA on the earned run average scale) in comparison to the other ERA estimators.
![](https://i0.wp.com/maxsportingstudio.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Screen-Shot-2021-04-23-at-9.32.56-AM.png?resize=785%2C399)
If one wishes to have an idea of which players one would predict to pitch best moving forward, one should take note of the leaders in pwOBA/pERA.
Featured image- Creator: Harry How | Credit: Getty Images